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More details on ARIMA model form and parameterisation #418

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28 changes: 23 additions & 5 deletions R/arima.R
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -515,12 +515,14 @@ specials_arima <- new_specials(
#' @param ... Further arguments for [`stats::arima()`]
#'
#' @section Parameterisation:

#' The fable `ARIMA()` function uses an alternative parameterisation of
#' constants to [`stats::arima()`] and [`forecast::Arima()`]. While the
#' parameterisations are equivalent, the coefficients for the constant/mean
#' will differ.
#'
#' The fable `ARIMA()` function uses an alternate parameterisation of constants
#' to [`stats::arima()`] and [`forecast::Arima()`]. While the parameterisations
#' are equivalent, the coefficients for the constant/mean will differ.
#'
#' In `fable`, the parameterisation used is:
#' In `fable`, if there are no exogenous regressors, the parameterisation used
#' is:
#'
#' \deqn{(1-\phi_1B - \cdots - \phi_p B^p)(1-B)^d y_t = c + (1 + \theta_1 B + \cdots + \theta_q B^q)\varepsilon_t}
#'
Expand All @@ -530,6 +532,22 @@ specials_arima <- new_specials(
#'
#' where \eqn{\mu} is the mean of \eqn{(1-B)^d y_t} and \eqn{c = \mu(1-\phi_1 - \cdots - \phi_p )}.
#'
#' If there are exogenous regressors, `fable` uses the same parameterisation as
#' used in stats and forecast. That is, it fits a regression with ARIMA(p,d,q)
#' errors:
#'
#' \deqn{y_t = c + \beta' x_t + z_t}
#'
#' where \eqn{\beta} is a vector of regression coefficients, \eqn{x_t} is
#' a vector of exogenous regressors at time \eqn{t}, and \eqn{z_t} is an
#' ARIMA(p,d,q) error process:
#'
#' \deqn{(1-\phi_1B - \cdots - \phi_p B^p)(1-B)^d z_t = (1 + \theta_1 B + \cdots + \theta_q B^q)\varepsilon_t}
#'
#' For details of the estimation algorithm, see the
#' \code{\link[stats]{arima}} function in the stats package.
#'

#' @section Specials:
#'
#' The _specials_ define the space over which `ARIMA` will search for the model that best fits the data. If the RHS of `formula` is left blank, the default search space is given by `pdq() + PDQ()`: that is, a model with candidate seasonal and nonseasonal terms, but no exogenous regressors. Note that a seasonal model requires at least 2 full seasons of data; if this is not available, `ARIMA` will revert to a nonseasonal model with a warning.
Expand Down
26 changes: 21 additions & 5 deletions man/ARIMA.Rd

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